Weekly Macro Review

Dollar started the week strong and ended strong, capping off a week of directional momentum in the currency markets. The recent renewed bullishness of US equities (on strength of earnings) and turbulence in the global markets is making the dollar attractive relative to other markets.

Updated weekly. Prices reflect daily market closings for week ending 08/10/2018…

Forex

DXY

07/20/2018 – 94.48

07/27/2018 – 94.67

08/03/2018 – 95.16

08/10/2018 – 96.27

EUR/USD

07/20/2018 – 1.1710

07/27/2018 – 1.166

08/03/2018 – 1.1598

08/10/2018 – 1.1404

GBP/USD

07/20/2018 – 1.3111

07/27/2018 – 1.3119

08/03/2018 – 1.3021

08/10/2018 – 1.2768

AUD/USD

07/20/2018 – 0.7410

07/27/2018 – 0.7409

08/03/2018 – 0.7407

08/10/2018 – 0.7299

USD/JPY

07/20/2018 – 111.7341

07/27/2018 – 110.9373

08/03/2018 – 111.1164

08/10/2018 – 110.6670

Government Yields

10-Yr US Treasury Rates

07/20/2018 – 2.89

07/27/2018 – 2.96

08/03/2018 – 2.95

08/10/2018 – 2.87

10-Yr China Government Bond Rates

07/20/2018 – 3.51

07/27/2018 – 3.52

08/03/2018 – 3.45

08/10/2018 – 3.55

10-Yr Japan Government Bond Rates

07/20/2018 – 0.039

07/27/2018 – 0.091

08/03/2018 – 0.121

08/10/2018 – 0.115

10-Yr German Government Bond Rates

07/20/2018 – 0.26

07/27/2018 – 0.28

08/03/2018 – 0.23

08/10/2018 – 0.15

10-Yr UK Gilt Rates

07/20/2018 – 1.29

07/27/2018 – 1.39

08/03/2018 – 1.49

08/10/2018 – 1.42

Equities

S & P 500

07/20/2018 – 2801.83

07/27/2018 – 2818.82

08/03/2018 – 2840.35

08/10/2018 – 2833.28

Shanghai Composite

07/20/2018 – 2829.27

07/27/2018 – 2873.59

08/03/2018 – 2740.44

08/10/2018 – 2795.31

Nikkei 225

07/20/2018 – 22697.88

07/27/2018 – 22712.75

08/03/2018 – 22525.18

08/10/2018 – 22298.08

DAX

07/20/2018 – 12561.42

07/27/2018 – 12860.4

08/03/2018 – 12615.76

08/10/2018 – 12424.35

FTSE 100

07/20/2018 – 7678.79

07/27/2018 – 7701.31

08/03/2018 – 7659.10

08/10/2018 – 7667.01

Commodities

SPDR Gold ETF

07/20/2018 – 116.56

07/27/2018 – 115.83

08/03/2018 – 114.92

08/10/2018 – 114.69

Brent Crude Oil

07/20/2018 – 72.97

07/27/2018 – 74.33

08/03/2018 – 73.33

08/10/2018 – 72.93

Misc.

VIX

07/20/2018 – 12.86

07/27/2018 – 13.03

08/03/2018 – 11.64

08/10/2018 – 13.16

Foreign Reserves

USA International Reserves (millions)

March 2018 – 125,238

April 2018 – 123,504

June 2018 – 120,897

July 2018 – 120,493

China International Reserves (millions)

April 2018 – 3,221,574

May 2018 – 3,203,232

June 2018 – 3,206,123

July 2018 – 3,210,045

Japan International Reserves (millions)

April 2018 – 1,256,018

May 2018 – 1,254,477

June 2018 – 1,258,748

July 2018 – 1,256,276

German International Reserves (millions)

April 2018 – 166,970

May 2018 – 171,469

June 2018 – 167,078

July 2018 – 163,308

UK International Reserves (millions)

April 2018 – 162,378

May 2018 – 164,686

June 2018 – 158,550

July 2018 – 162,730

You may also like...

4 Responses

  1. Will says:

    I like the website. Do you think it would be possible at some point to update the 2yr – 10yr Treasury German Bund yields along with say a few other European national yields? Just interested given the uncertainties.

    • David Wang says:

      Thanks Will! I think there will be another overhaul of data being tracked this summer/fall, and expanding federal rates tracked would definitely be a possibility.

  2. Will says:

    Nice one Dave,
    It’s funny how the German and American Reserves are limited, yet those aren’t necessarily their problems. On another note I expect Crude to correct here soon, excess capacity is building while newer renewable sources are rolling out,– along with the grids necessary.
    The Bond data…nice, as a slight suggestion, is there a way to change the comments so that they appear for each different post instead of as a group under them all?

    Cheers

    • David Wang says:

      A drop back to $40-45 for crude is possible given the structural shifts you have mentioned, which I agree with, but for me a “correction” would imply a return to $60 – $70. The current $50 price is already a significant deviation from what would be considered median oil prices.

      War is still oil powered, which is something to consider. Your call predates this week’s events but it is worth keeping in mind the volatility of commodities, which are perhaps most malleable to free market forces.

      I’m not sure what exactly what you mean by comment grouping, but the reason your comments all appear in this post is because I’m editing one existing post weekly. I could make a new post each week, but until there’s more content published regularly, the new posts would bury other content.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *